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"An Approach to Successful Stock Trading Combining Company   Fundamentals with Chart Technicals"
Comments or Questions (TSM Service, Methodology, Performance or Your Success Stories)  Go Here - (rmiller@triplescreenmethod.com)

 Short-Term Trading - What's Working in These Economic Times

The chart below shows how expected profit varies as a function of four factors (win rate, loss rate, average gain and average loss) according to the following equation:

The profit (green) and loss (red) bubbles are calculated from the above equation, while the yellow bubble houses TSM's forecasted results for the 322 half-position trades made in the first three quarters of 2008 (through 9/25/08). Obviously, my preference has been to take quick, albeit smaller, profits, hold tight reign on losses, and use a methodology that generates a high win rate (>70%). That's one of the strategies that has worked during the tough economic times of 2008 (S&P 500 dropped 38.49% while the TSM forecasted trades gained 110.7%).

Over 32 quarters (3rd quarter 2003 through 3rd quarter 2011), 2,978 half-position trades have been forecast with an average 70.8% win rate (78.3% win rate average over past 10 quarters) and a 3,151% total return, all over a period in which the S&P 500 returned a 13.6%. A TSM $35,000 hypothetical account would have grown to $1,137,744. A complete list of trades can be found here (Excel Table: 2003-2011).  The following chart shows the quarterly head-to-head contrast of TSM and the S&P500.

Understand this, though, the TSM daily report forecasts hypothetical trades, i.e., what could be achieved during the life of the trade, not actual trades. While I do make many of the trades myself, I often don't attain the maximum profit possible for a given trade (true, I'm sure, for most of TSM's readers) because I don't set at the computer over the entire time the market's open (usually only the first 1 and 1/2 hours and the last hour). TSM's goal is to produce a list of fundamentally sound stocks (mostly in the $500 million to $10 billion market cap range) that have earning's revision fuel to generate immediate price movement and remaining value at the current price. Optimally, they're also in the final stages of a pullback as well (both less risky and more profitable than buying breakouts).

Most TSM Daily Reports will contain at least one forecasted stock play with accompanying entry and exit points. The entry point consists of both a pullback range where I prefer to buy (and possibly a breakout point as well).. I'll enter my full position at either point depending on which occurs first, i.e., if, for instance, the TSM pick breaks higher and beyond TSM's breakout point then immediately pullbacks into TSM's pullback range, the stock is bought at the breakout point.  If you set your trades up before the open and can't watch the market, enter two buy points: half a position at the breakout point and half a position at the midpoint of the pullback range

Each TSM forecast also has a profit range where each stock is sold depending on the intra-day market conditions and two stop-loss points for each half position. For the last ten quarters, TSM forecasted picks have proved profitable more than 75% of the time. While it's difficult to take a loss, especially considering the quality of these stocks, it's imperative that these small losses are taken when the stops are hit. THE ABILITY TO TAKE SMALL LOSSES AS PART OF THE STRATEGY IS WHAT SEPERATES THE PROFITABLE TRADER. IT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MARKET PROFESSIONALS AND AMATEURS.

Sym	Daily Closing Price	Date Position Initiated	Buy Price	Stop Loss and Profit Points	Max Price Reached During Hold Period	Sell Targets Met  [Date Sell 1/2 Positions at Profit (+ green) or Loss  (- red)]	Current   Charts
WPI	stopped out	09/30/11	$69.40	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $66.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $65.44	$70.05	10/03/11 @ -$2.96 10/03/11 @ -$3.96	daily / weekly
DG	closed	10/07/11	$37.55	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $35.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $34.44	$39.40	10/11/11 @ +$1.75 10/11/11 @ +$1.75	daily / weekly
DG	closed	10/14/11	$40.04	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $35.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $34.44	$40.46	10/18/11 @ +$1.00 10/19/11 @ +$1.25	daily / weekly
DTV	closed	10/17/11	$46.11	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $44.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $43.44	48.00	10/24/11 @ +$1.50 10/25/11 @ +$1.75	daily / weekly
ADBE	closed	10/19/11	$26.06	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $24.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $23.44	$27.41	10/21/11 @ +$1.25 10/21/11 @ +$1.25	daily / weekly
DG	closed	10/24/11	$39.51	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $37.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $36.44	$40.71	10/25/11 @ +$0.95 10/26/11 @ +$1.10	daily / weekly
DG	closed	10/28/11	$39.01	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $37.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $37.44	$40.36	10/31/11 @ +$0.90 11/15/11 @ +$1.25	daily / weekly
GCO	closed	10/31/11	$58.21	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $56.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $55.44	$60.00	10/31/11 @ +$1.50 10/31/11 @ +$1.50	daily / weekly
WPI	$67.16	10/28/11	$67.41	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $65.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $64.44	$68.32	11/01/11 @ +$0.90 11/01/11 @ +$0.90	daily / weekly
NKE	closed	11/04/11	$93.73	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $89.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $88.44	$96.24	11/04/11 @ +$2.00 11/04/11 @ +$2.27	daily / weekly
GCO	closed	11/08/11	$58.29	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $55.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $54.44	$60.53	11/10/11 @    -$2.35 11/15/11 @ +$2.10	daily / weekly
GME	closed	11/09/11	$25.09	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $23.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $22.44	$25.50	11/16/11 @    -1.65 11/16/11 @    -$2.65	daily / weekly
VFC	closed	11/09/11	$132.38	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $126.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $124.44	$133.53	11/09/11 @ +$1.00 11/09/11 @ +$1.10	daily / weekly
NKE	closed	11/09/11	$93.50	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $89.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $88.44	$96.41	11/10/11 @ +$1.00 11/11/11 @ +$2.75	daily / weekly
KSS	$52.14	11/14/11	$55.51	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $53.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $51.94	$56.25	11/21/11 @    -$2.07 11/25/11 @     -$3.63	daily / weekly
HSNI	closed	11/14/11	$36.01	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $34.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $31.44	$37.63	11/11/15 @ +$1.00 12/05/11 @ +$1.50	daily / weekly
CELG	closed	11/16/11	$64.45	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $60.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $59.94	$65.82	11/16/11 @ +$1.25 11/16/11 @ +$1.25	daily / weekly
UA	closed	11/16/11	$81.29	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $78.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $77.44	$81.65	11/17/11 @     -$2.35 11/17/11 @     -$3.85	daily / weekly
DLTR	closed	11/16/11	$77.81	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $74.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $73.44	$77.94	11/21/11 @     -$3.37 11/21/11@      -$4.37	daily / weekly
BBBY	closed	11/21/11	$59.52	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $57.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $56.44	$60.65	11/28/11 @ +$1.00 11/28/11 @ +$1.10	daily / weekly
GNRC	closed	11/21/11	$24.12	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $22.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $21.44	$25.18	11/25/11 @    -$1.68 112/01/11 @ +$1.00	daily / weekly
DPZ	closed	11/21/11	$31.81	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $30.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $28.44	$33.66	11/25/11 @     -$1.37 12/01/11 @ +$1.75	daily / weekly
DG	closed	11/23/11	$38.91	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $37.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $36.44	$41.05	11/29/11 @ +$1.10 12/01/11 @ +$2.00	daily / weekly
SPRD	closed	11/28/11	$24.11	In Trade; close position with $0.49 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $21.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $20.44	$25.89	11/28/11 @ +$0.75 12/01/11 @ +$1.75	daily / weekly
SPRD	closed	12/01/11	$24.76	In Trade; close position with $0.49 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $21.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $20.44	$25.89	12/01/11 @ +$1.00 12/01/11 @ +$1.00	daily / weekly
HCA	closed	12/01/11	$24.07	In Trade; close position with $0.49 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $22.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $21.44	$24.58	12/01/11 @ +$0.50 12/08/11 @    -$2.63	daily / weekly
DG	closed	12/02/11	$39.46	In Trade; close position with $0.90 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $37.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $35.44	$41.25	12/05/11 @ +$1.50 12/05/11 @ +$1.75	daily / weekly
SPRD	$20.74	12/06/11	$23.26	In Trade; close position with $0.49 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $20.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $19.44	$23.56	12/06/11 @     -$2.32 12/14/11 @ -$-4.63	daily / weekly
NSR	closed	12/07/11	$33.08	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $31.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $30.44	$34.04	12/08/11 @ +$0.90 12/08/11 @ +$0.95	daily / weekly
HAIN	closed	12/07/11	$35.57	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $33.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $32.44	$36.95	12/09/11 @ +$1.10 12/13/11 @ +$1.25	daily / weekly
DG	closed	12/07/11	$39.35	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $37.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $36.44	$41.50	12/08/11 @ +$1.00 12/12/11 @ +$2.00	daily / weekly
CBI	close	12/12/11	$38.51	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $35.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $34.44	$39.29	12/13/11 @ +$0.75 12/28/11 @ +$0.65	daily / weekly
KSU	closed	12/12/11	$65.50	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $61.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $60.44	$66.50	12/13/11 +$1.00 12/13/11 @ +$1.00	daily / weekly
HNT	closed	12/12/11	$29.47	In Trade; close position with $0.49 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $27.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $26.44	$30.30	12/13/11 +$0.75 12/13/11 @ +$0.80	daily / weekly
DG	close	12/14/11	$40.34	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $38.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $37.44	$41.67	12/15/11 @ +$1.25 12/28/11 @ +$1.25	daily / weekly
TSCO	close	12/19/11	$72.01	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $69.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $67.94	$72.95	12/28/11 @ +$0.75 12/28/11 @ +$0.75	daily / weekly
DPZ	closed	11/21/11	$33.36	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $31.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $30.44	$34.64	01/10/12 +$0.90 01/12/12 @ +$1.25	daily / weekly
DG	closed	01/06/12	$40.76	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $38.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $36.94	$43.00	01/17/12 @ +$1.00 01/26/12  @ +$2.10	daily / weekly
ABT	$55.00	01/06/12	$56.05	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $53.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $52.44	$56.27	full long position	daily / weekly
GNC	closed	01/06/12	$28.20	In Trade; close position with $0.49 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $26.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $25.44	$29.02	01/10/12 +$0.75 01/10/12 +$0.80	daily / weekly
DIS	closed	01/13/12	$38.04	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $35.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $34.44	$39.75	01/17/12 @ +$0.90 01/26/12 @ +$1.70	daily / weekly
WMT	closed	01/19/12	$59.75	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $56.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $55.44	$62.00	01/20/12 @ +$1.35 01/24/12 @ +$2.00	daily / weekly
GCO	closed	01/20/12	$59.03	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $57.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $55.44	$60.71	01/23/12 @ +$1.00 01/24/12 @ +$1.50	daily / weekly
NSC	$73.61	01/26/12	$74.51	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $71.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $69.44	$76.83	full long position	daily / weekly
CFX	closed	01/26/12	$30.51	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $28.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $27.44	$32.53	01/27/12 @ +$2.00 01/27/12 @ +$2.00	daily / weekly
ALXN	closed	01/26/12	$74.26	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $69.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $68.44	$78.00	01/30/12 @ +$1.25 02/01/12 @ + $3.50	daily / weekly
LOW	$27.20	01/26/12	$26.51	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $25.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $24.44	$27.41	01/31/12 @ +$0.90	daily / weekly
ROST	close	01/31/12	$50.31	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $47.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $46.44	$52.53	02/01/12 @ +$1.25 02/02/12 @ +$2.10	daily / weekly
DG	$41.94	02/03/12	$42.01	In Trade; close position with $0.89 to $2.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $39.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $38.44	$41.50	full long position	daily / weekly
LOW	$27.20	02/03/12	$27.08	In Trade; close position with $0.49 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $24.94, 2nd 1/2 @ $23.44	$27.28	full long position	daily / weekly
NSR	$36.44	02/03/12	$36.10	In Trade; close position with $0.49 to $4.50 gains & stop losses: 1st 1/2 @ $34.44, 2nd 1/2 @ $33.44	$36.48	full long position	daily / weekly
Sym	Daily Closing Price	Date Position Initiated	Buy Price	Stop Loss and Profit Points	Max Price Reached During Hold Period	Sell Targets Met [Date Sell 1/2 Positions at Profit (+ green) or Loss (- red)]	Current   Charts

1st Quarter 2012 (to Date (02/02/12)) 19 completed 1/2 position trades (19 Winners & 0 Losers with 100% Win Rate for  +$27.25 Points Total Gain.  If you traded 1,000 shares per position (500 shares per 1/2 position), you'd be ahead by +$12,075 so far this quarter.

4th Quarter 2011 (to Date (12/28/11)) 72 completed 1/2 position trades (56 Winners & 16 Losers with 77.8% Win Rate for  +$24.21 Points Total Gain.  If you traded 1,000 shares per position (500 shares per 1/2 position), you'd be ahead by +$12,105 so far this quarter.

3rd Quarter 2011 (to Date (09/29/11)) 47 Completed 1/2 Position Trades (35 Winners & 12 Losers with 85.7% Win Rate for +$29.49 Points Total Grain.  If you traded 1,000 shares per position (500 shares per 1/2 position), you'd be ahead by +$14,745 so far this quarter.

TSM Stock Performance (31 Quarters from 2003 through 2011)

A list of new TSM picks (accumulated from nine fundamental, a value, and an earnings quality/revision screen) is published in Monday's TSM Report: 50 to 250 stocks with strong fundamentals, with projected quality earning’s performance (Zacks), and with remaining value (two year PEG ratios). This is the list that I search daily looking for those stocks giving strong technical signals (usually pullbacks), i.e., those stocks that are likely to make a bullish run over the next 1 to 10 days.

Yearly results for TSM forecasted stocks are summarized in the following table. Bottom line: in an economic climate that restricted the S&P 500 to a +23.5 percent gain, the TSM stocks have returned 2,453%; a $35,000 account would have grown to $1,033,374 in 31 quarters.  Perhaps most impressive, in 2008 when the S&P fell -38.5%, the TSM stocks returned an impressive +110.7 percent, as short-term stock picking was virtually the only strategy for success because of the constant sector rotation of money.