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FEEL FREE TO PRINT THIS WEEKEND REPORT |
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"An Approach
to Successful Stock Trading Combining Company Fundamentals with Chart Technicals" |
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Comments or Questions (TSM Service, Methodology, Performance or Your Success Stories) Go Here - (rmiller@triplescreenmethod.com) |
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- TSM 11 Books of Interest - "from my own library" |
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Larry Connors, the President of TradingMarkets.com, is the consummate numbers guy. Once again here, he used the results of millions of trades to prove, that ETFs can be traded very successfully (>80% winners) using a few simple entry and exit rules. In addition to the lower risks offered from trading ETFs (increased diversification), I love the simplicity of this book and have personally used its principles to make ~25 successful trades so far. It's 127 pages organized in 10 chapters that detail 7 strategies. Part of me hopes that you don't read this book. This is another great read from Peter Navarro, especially if you're part of a company's decision making brain trust. In today's economic conditions, it's particularly timely. For the rest of us, it offers insight into a company's management quality. Much of this insight is counterintuitive for most of us: increased hiring during a downturn and using the downturn to take advantage of the next expansion. Some companies do this well (so called Master Cyclists) and some don't Reactive Cyclists; unfortunately, the ones that do it badly often lead a company to destruction (and its work force to the unemployment line). In Navarro's words: "The Master Cyclist team will begin to cut back on production, trim inventories and ratchet down capital expenditures in anticipation of a recession; whereas during a recession, this team might "cherry pick" from a swollen labor force to get top talent at bargain wages." Too, I like the description of the business cycle, the expected sector rotations through it, and his recommendations of the best leading cycle indicators. Everyone in the business of trading/investing in stocks should read this book. Also bookmark his website. I just finished reading Bill Staton's new book and enjoyed it. Bill is a financial advisor and wealth manager. He recommends a simple strategy that takes about an hour annually: wealth through investment in five of his "America's Finest Companies." These are companies with at least a ten year history of increasing either earnings or dividends, usually about 300 (companies like WMT and MCD). These companies work well with TSM's Naked Put strategy. (4/11/09) Harry Dent has made astoundingly accurate forecasts in the past. Based on a combination of population demographics and technology life cycles, he forecasted the bullish run of the '90's and the housing bubble we're experiencing now. Everyone should be at least aware of his current thoughts on what will happen in the years to come and in the next few years particularly. Indeed, it's scary! This has been one of my favorite market books over the years. It's a macro economic look at the market and how to interpret market news: why sectors rotate, the impact of inflation and trade deficits, the changing business cycle. It also offers specific trading advice, e.g., Chapter 8 is entitled: "Ten Rules to Protect Your Capital." Too, it's an easy read and one, I'm sure, you'll re-read regularly! Ken Fisher, the Forbes columnist and one of the richest me in America, has written a gem here. The founder and CEO of Fisher Investments, an independent money management firm based in Woodside, CA, Ken manages assets for both private and institutional clients globally. In his book, he shares some of the same philosophy and methodology he uses to manage billions for his clients at Fisher Investments. Much of what you believe about the market is untrue and easily refuted by simple analysis. For the most part, Ken provides a refreshingly contrarian take. As Jim Crammer says: "I believe that reading this book may be the single best thing you could do this year to make yourself a better investor...It's engaging, it's entertaining, and yeah, it's even funny!" This is another Ken Fisher book, one I read recently in about three days. Basically, its theme is that there are 10 well defined roads to becoming rich from starting your own company to marrying well, and here, Ken provides insight into each one of them. I enjoyed the journey through this book. Larry Connors, the President of TradingMarkets.com, is the consummate numbers guy. Here, he used the results of millions of trades to prove, among other things, that buying pullbacks, e.g., 10 day lows, is considerably more profitable than buying highs. Too, he's the developer of the 2-period RSI (he calls it the traders holy grail of indicators) and TradingMarkets' PowerRatings. I particularly liked his trade exit strategies. While this book is one of the more pricy ones on this list, it's well worth the money. Written by a former Green Beret, this book explains key financial data used in calculating the future worth of a company and the price one should pay. According to Town, anyone following the methods suggested should be able to generate a 15 percent return and double his money every five years. Toni covers the landscape of short-term trading from making a plan to executing it. Writing in a lively, entertaining style, she makes learning this relatively difficult material easier. Her techniques are used by most successful traders. I've read all her books and reread those more short-term oriented. Michael Covel tells the riveting account of a group of investors trained by Richard Dennis and partner William Eckhardt. Basically, Dennis found a group of individuals--new to trading--showed them a trading strategy over a two-week period then funded each with up to a million dollar trading account. Many became today's most successful hedge fund managers. The secret to making money in today's market lies in minimizing risk. Naked Puts and Collars are two option approaches that TSM has recommended. This book provides a good introduction. I particularly like Chapter 7: Management Techniques and Monitoring the Trade. It takes you through the trade management aspects over several months with adjustments made as dictated by market conditions. As counterintuitive as it sounds, the crowd is often more accurate in its analysis than the individual, even if that individual is an expert. Surowiecki, in his remarkable little book, The Wisdom of Crowds, puts it this way: "...ask a hundred people to answer a question or solve a problem, and the average answer will be at least as good as the answer of the smartest member. With most things, average is mediocrity. With decision making, it's often excellence. You could say it's as if we've been programmed to be collectively smart." In the stock market, the price of a stock is set by people representing all sorts of levels of information, intelligence, and resulting expectations: traders betting a stock’s price direction over the next few minutes to weeks, long-term investors expecting the value of their shares to rise and short-sellers betting the price of a stock will fall. Through their collective buying and selling, the market efficiently prices the value of a company's stock. This crowd's response to fear and greed manifests itself in predictable chart patterns, e.g., the multi-day pullback after a period of steady rise followed by its reversal at specific levels of symmetry (often common Fibonacci levels). These are crowd responses that have played out the same way for the past 100 years.
This is an extremely good read, one of my favorite books. Read a Trader's Corner report I published a few years ago.
I'll add other books to this list as time permits.